Tuesday, January 6, 2009

A Strange Pigovian Idea in Oregon

A reader asks about this plan:
Democratic Gov. Theodore R. Kulongoski's upcoming budget calls for a highway tax based on mileage, not gasoline purchases.A state task force will look at equipping every new vehicle in Oregon with a Global Positioning System to record every mile driven and where. Motorists would pay at the gas pump based on how much they drove, no matter how fuel-frugal their vehicle.
This makes sense if you are trying to tax road use and congestion but don't particularly care whether people are driving SmartCars or Hummers. On the other hand, as long as politicians and the public are concerned about fuel efficiency and carbon emissions, as they seem to be, it makes more sense to stick to the more standard gasoline tax.

One possible advantage for the GPS system: You can potentially calibrate the level of the tax to the degree of congestion on the particular road at the particular time of day, so the tax better reflects the changing externality associated with driving. There is no evidence in the article that this varying charge is envisioned, however.

Update: Fred Thompson, a professor at Willamette University in Oregon, offers this input:

I am a faithful reader of your blog and have used your intro text (were I still teaching intro, I'd use it again, although the price is off-putting).

I am writing about Gov. Kulongoski's weight-use mile tax proposal,which deserves, I think, a closer look. The tax is not primarily aimed at gasoline consumption, but is a charge for highway use. The base rate proposed is a quadratic function of axle-weight, times the number of axles and miles travelled, which together with vehicle speed, determines highway wean and tear. However, lighter axle-weight is correlated with fuel consumption (as is speed) and highly fuel efficient vehicles are already eligible for state subsidy.

Of course, one critical advantage of the proposal is that: "You can potentially calibrate the level of the tax to the degree of congestion on the particular road at the particular time of day, so the tax better reflects the changing externality associated with driving." This is, indeed, contemplated in the Gov's proposal,although it is not included in the 2009-11 budget. In the longer run, congestion-pricing will also be useful in maintaining the existing transportation network and necessary for planning its expansion. Moreover, there is not much sense in building the GPS system if you aren't contemplating congestion pricing.

The proposal also contemplates the incorporation of vehicle speed into the base rate in the future. However, like congestion pricing, OR's Department of Transportation hasn't done enough experimentation with this option to understand how it to make it work.

Thanks, Fred.

Monday, January 5, 2009

The Disappearing Money Multiplier

Econ prof Bill Seyfried of Rollins College emails me:
Here's an interesting fact that you may not have seen yet. The M1 money multiplier just slipped below 1. So each $1 increase in reserves (monetary base) results in the money supply increasing by $0.95 (OK, so banks have substantially increased their holding of excess reserves while the M1 money supply hasn't changed by much).
Thanks.

Glaeser on Stimulus

Ed weighs in.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

The Protectionist Threat

Reuters reports:

Both President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden will huddle with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders on Monday to try to advance a huge economic stimulus bill that Obama hopes can be enacted quickly, despite Republican reservations.

Obama's transition team said it is mulling "buy American" provisions for the stimulus package that could favor U.S. companies over foreign competitors.

Let's hope Larry Summers and Christy Romer are successful at beating back this bad idea.

The Progressivity of the Tax System

The CBO has released a new report on effective tax rates (total taxes divided by total income). Compared with previous reports, it includes more information about thin slices at the top of the income distribution. Here are the total effective federal tax rates for 2005, the most recent year available:

Lowest quintile: 4.3 percent
Second quintile: 9.9 percent
Middle quintile: 14.2 percent
Fourth quintile: 17.4 percent
Percentiles 81-90: 20.3 percent
Percentiles 91-95: 22.4 percent
Percentiles 96-99: 25.7 percent
Percentiles 99.0-99.5: 29.7 percent
Percentiles 99.5-99.9: 31.2 percent
Percentiles 99.9-99.99: 32.1 percent
Top 0.01 Percentile: 31.5 percent


N.B.: These figures include all federal taxes, not just income taxes.

Friday, January 2, 2009

Get Ready for a Tough Year

The Young Stars of Economics

As seen by The Economist.

N.B.: Six of the eight have been either Harvard students or Harvard faculty at some point during their careers. And the other two were once targets of Harvard recruitment efforts, which sadly proved unsuccessful.

Here is the previous installment by The Economist.